Analysis of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Chinese Stock Market Using Non-Harmonic Analysis: Market Responses to Major Economic Events

This study employs Non-Harmonic Analysis (NHA) to investigate the cyclical characteristics and market response patterns of the Chinese stock market during two critical periods: 2006-2008 and 2014-2016. By analyzing daily frequency data from the Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC), the study identifies the dynamic behavior of short-term (32-64 days), medium-term (128 days), and long-term (256 days and beyond) cycles. The findings demonstrate that short-term cycles capture the market's immediate reactions, medium-term cycles serve as a transition between short-term and long-term trends, and long-term cycles reflect the market's adaptation to macroeconomic conditions. Under the influence of major events, such as the Lehman Brothers collapse and the RMB devaluation, the market exhibited a dynamic transition from short-term speculative activity to long-term adjustment. The application of NHA effectively uncovers market patterns across various time scales, offering significant insights for understanding market behavior, risk management, and policy-making.